Sinn Féin is likely to be the biggest party on first preference votes in Dublin and Connacht/Ulster, Fianna Fáil in Munster and Fine Gael in Leinster, last night’s Exit Poll suggests.
The situation is outlined in a regional breakdown of the first preference votes, based on the RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, Trinity College Dublin Exit Poll carried out by Ipsos B&A of 5,018 people at 253 locations across the country after they voted yesterday.
The poll suggests that Sinn Féin has 21.1% first preference support, Fine Gael 21% and Fianna Fáil 19.5%.
At a regional level, it suggests that Sinn Féin has 21% in Dublin, followed by Fine Gael on 17%, Fianna Fáil on 14%, Social Democrats on 9%, Labour on 8%, People Before Profit-Solidarity on 7%, the Green Party on 6%, Aontú on 4%, other smaller parties on 3% and Independent Ireland on 1%.
In Connacht/Ulster Sinn Féin is also the biggest party based on first preferences, according to the Exit Poll, with 29% support compared to 21% for Fine Gael, 18% for Fianna Fáil, 6% for Independent Ireland, 3% for Aontú, 2% each for the Green Party, other smaller parties and People Before Profit-Solidarity, Labour at 1% and 0% for the Social Democrats.
In Munster, Fianna Fáil is the biggest party according to the Exit Poll at 25%, followed by Fine Gael at 22%, Sinn Féin at 16%, the Social Democrats at 8%, Labour at 5%, the Green Party at 4%, Independent Ireland at 3%, People Before Profit-Solidarity and Aontú at 2% each, and 1% for other smaller parties.
And in the rest of Leinster, excluding Dublin, the poll suggests Fine Gael is in the lead on 23%, followed by Fianna Fáil on 21%, Sinn Féin on 20%, Labour and Aontú on 5% each, the Social Democrats on 4%, the Green Party on 3%, People Before Profit-Solidarity and other smaller parties on 2% and Independent Ireland on 0%.
Among age groups on first preferences from the exit poll, Sinn Féin is ahead among 18-24 year olds (29%), 25-34 year olds (36%), and 35-49 year olds (21%), while Fine Gael is ahead among 50-64 year olds (26%) and people aged 65 or over (28%).
The full age breakdown in first preferences according to the exit poll is:
* 18-24s – SF (29%), FF (15%), FG (14%), Ind Ireland (11%), Soc Dems (9%), PBP-S (7%), Lab (5%), Aontú (4%), Greens (4%), other smaller parties (1%)
* 25-34s – SF (36%), FF (11%), FG (11%), Ind Ireland (10%), Soc Dems (9%), PBP-S (6%), Lab (5%), Greens (4%), Aontú (3%), other smaller parties (2%)
* 35-49s – SF (21%), FG (19%), FF (18%), Ind Ireland (15%), Soc Dems (7%), Greens (5%), Lab (5%), PBP-S (3%), Aontú (3%), other smaller parties (2%)
* 50-64s – FG (26%), FF (22%), SF (16%), Ind Ireland (13%), Lab (5%), Soc Dems (4%), Aontú (4%), Greens (3%), PBP-S (2%), other smaller parties (2%)
* 65+ – FG (28%), FF (27%), SF (13%), Ind Ireland (12%), Lab (5%), Greens (4%), Soc Dems (3%), Aontú (3%), other smaller parties (2%), PBP-S (1%)
The Exit Poll was conducted by Ipsos B&A on Friday 29 November and carried out in-person, outside polling stations at 253 locations across the country, covering each of the 43 Dáil constituencies.
The sample size was 5,018, and the margin of error s 1.4%.
Read More:
Live: The story of the count and results weekend
Poll data puts spotlight on possible centre-left alliances
Local updates from each constituency
