The Michigan State Spartans (16-9, 8-6 Big Ten) battle the Michigan Wolverines (14-12, 8-7) Saturday. Tip from the Crisler Center is set for 8 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Michigan State vs. Michigan odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Michigan State beat Michigan 59-53 at home on Jan. 7, covering as a 3.5-point favorite as the Under (138.5) hit.

The Wolverines are coming off a 64-59 road loss to Wisconsin Tuesday, failing to cover as a 1.5-point underdog. They are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) over their last 5 games and 12-13-1 ATS on the season.

The Spartans have covered 2 in a row but are 2-4 ATS over their last 6. They are coming off a 62-41 road victory over Ohio State Sunday, covering as a 4-point road underdog. Michigan State is 13-12 ATS on the season.

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Michigan State at Michigan odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Michigan State +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Michigan -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Michigan State +2.5 (-115) | Michigan -2.5 (-105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 134.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Michigan State at Michigan picks and predictions

Prediction

Michigan 68, Michigan State 64

Moneyline

PASS.

I would think the spread would be the better value here considering there could be quite a bit of late-game fouling if it’s close.

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Against the spread

BET MICHIGAN -2.5 (-105).

Michigan has won the last 3 home games in this rivalry series by at least 9 points. The Wolverines are 7-6-1 ATS at home this season while Michigan State is just 3-5 ATS on the road.

Michigan is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Similarly, the Spartans haven’t covered well over the past few weeks, posting just a 2-4 ATS record over their last 6 outings.

Considering the trends with how home teams fare in this rivalry, back MICHIGAN -2.5 (-105).

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 134.5 (-110).

Michigan State has gone Under in 6 of its last 8 games and in 3 in a row. It has held its opponent to 61 or fewer in 3 straight as well and in 4 of its last 5.

The Spartans rank 29th in the nation in opponents’ field goal percentage (40.4%) and 12th in opponents’ 3-point field goal percentage (28.9%).

Michigan has gone Under in 2 straight and in 3 of its last 5 contests. The two teams are a combined 13-16 O/U this season in conference games. Put it all together, and back the UNDER 134.5 (-110).

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