In its outlook for 2024, Core expects print and TV to slip further, but out-of-home and digital advertising will drive overall growth. Total spend across “offline” media will be down 1.9pc, but Core expects this will be outweighed by a 7.9pc increase in digital.
The TV market is set for another year of decline, after slipping by 5.8pc last year to €244.2m, which was in line with reduced viewing of linear TV programmes. Core is forecasting a drop of 3.9pc in revenues this year.
“Increased investment from certain categories including motor, utilities and banking will help slow down the revenue decline versus 2023,” its outlook stated.
“It will be increasingly important for advertisers to access live sport and appointment-to-view programming in order to reach the large-scale audiences that TV can still deliver.”
Advertising revenues will be expected to increase this summer with the Uefa Euro 2024 football tournament in Germany – albeit without the Ireland team being involved – and the Olympic Games in Paris across July and August.
The importance of online video in marketing budgets will increase again this year, according to Core – up 10.4pc to €450m.
Increased viewing through internet-connected TV sets, with half of all online video viewing now using that technology, will allow advertisers to target their audiences more precisely.
“YouTube will continue to see strong growth in spends, with all the premium broadcasters now putting some of their content on the platform,” Core said. “We estimate revenue will be €55.9m in 2024.”
The agency is also predicting strong growth in cinema advertising this year. The simultaneous release of Barbie and Oppenheimer gave a boost to cinema last year, but the strike involving the Writers Guild of America delayed the release of some movies. Among the biggest titles set to screen this year are Despicable Me 4, Deadpool 3 and Dune: Part Two.
Expenditure on cinema advertising in the Republic of Ireland fell by 11.8pc last year to €4.58m. “We are forecasting it will grow by 17.7pc to €5.39m,” Core said.
Digital advertising expenditure increased by just over 9pc last year, to €912.8m, and now accounts for almost two-thirds of overall ad revenue in Ireland. It is dominated by the two biggest tech companies, Google and Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram. That duopoly accounted for almost 80pc of the digital spend.
“TikTok’s increasing importance to brands will ensure that the share of digital spends going to the global players will increase in 2024,” Core said, which is forecasting an increase in the overall online market of 7.85pc to €984.5m this year. The largest category for growth continues to be social media, followed by video.
The audio market had only a modest year of growth last year, with spending by the Government falling from the heights of the pandemic, but more advertising activity in categories such as retail, motors, travel and transport.
Core is predicting a slight increase in the audio market again this year, with a 1.8pc rise in revenue to €157.7m.
While live radio is estimated to reach 91pc of adults each week, music streaming now reaches 40pc of adults and podcasts reach 22pc.
“Investment follows audiences, and digital audio is expected to command 10.6pc of overall audio spend to reach €18.6m in 2024, growth of 18.5pc year on year,” according to Core’s outlook.
After two years of modest growth, there was a reduced media spend in the print sector last year.
Core estimates that expenditure fell by 11.7pc to €75m. Revenues on the digital side of the newspaper business did increase by 5.4pc to €29.4m.
Core is predicting a 13pc decline in print expenditure this year to €65.2m in the Republic, while digital spends should be up 7pc to €31.5m.
In Northern Ireland last year, overall media expenditure fell by about 2.2pc to £198.9m, driven by a significant decline in government spending. Core predicts that the government will spend more this year and that Northern Ireland’s market will return to growth, although this will be influenced by the political climate.