HomeHorse RacingHorse Racing Tips: Your Best Bets for Saturday night’s Kentucky Derby card

Horse Racing Tips: Your Best Bets for Saturday night’s Kentucky Derby card

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Trader Tips for Churchill Downs

17:36 – Mischief Magic
18:14 – Three Witches (each-way)
18:56 – Coppice
19:46 – Seize The Grey (each-way)
20:40 – Legend Of Time
21:31 – Hoist The Gold
22:27 – I’m Very Busy
23:57 – Catching Freedom (each-way)

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

The Kentucky Derby (23:57) looks set to be a cracker with a big field of 22 runners declared for the Churchill Downs extravaganza on Saturday night. Paddy’s paying up to 5 places online opening up an each-way play or two, but the markets focus on two main principles.

Frankie Dettori rides the first of what looks like a great group of horses from Charlie Appleby’s yard and looks on form to be the horse they all have to beat. MISCHIEF MAGIC showed his suitability to American-style racing when taking the 2022 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and has put some solid form competing in top races worldwide. His latest when a solid second at Keeneland should have him spot on for this and importantly it looks like there is plenty of pace for him to close into, which is the key to him being at his best. Expect to see Frankie doing his best work late charging down the tiring pace-setters.

There is a lot of pace in this race with the 2,5,6,7 and 9 horses all confirmed front runners which should set the race up for a closer. THREE WITCHES looks like one of those that will benefit most. She’s highly progressive and has graduated from allowance races to taking two graded stakes races on either side of a career-best third in the Breeders Cup Fillies and Mare’s Sprint. She’ll let the others get on with it early and hopefully, they play into our hands by setting the race up for a late closer.

COPPICE makes her first start for Chad Brown having left John Gosdens and looks to have form that towers over this field. She was last seen in the UK running fourth in the Sun Chariot, her form stands heads and shoulders above this field and gets the services of Frankie in the Saddle who won on her at Newmarket in September. There looks to be no US opposition with anything near the calibre of form that Coppice has.

She rates one of the better bets on the card.

In what is a common theme on the night’s card, this is another race with an abundance of early-paced horses, again potentially setting it up for a deep closer. SEIZE THE GREY takes a slight drop back in trip and this strongly-run mile could suit him very well. He has some decent form in the book in a couple of Kentucky Derby preps and should find this easier once working out a clean trip.

 

Frankie Dettori again on what I’m hoping will be a big night for the Appleby team. While you could question the quality of the horses he beat in Dubai this winter, he could hardly have been more visually impressive in doing so. The American crop of three-year-old colts look underwhelming. I hope he can take this on LEGEND OF TIME before heading to the New York turf series over the summer.

While going for a few closers so far this is a race that HOIST THE GOLD can lead from pillar to post. They’ve tried to make a miler out of him in his last two starts in hot company, but the petrol tank was empty by the final furlong. The drop-down to 7f now looks ideal. He’s drawn in 11 but should have the gate speed to clear all these easily and prove a tough nut to crack.

Naval Power will hopefully be going for a treble by now for Charlie Appleby and Frankie Dettori, and he is respected on the back of a solid effort behind Master of the Seas at Keeneland. But the US has an above-average horse in opposition in the shape of I’M VERY BUSY. He’s taken his form to a new level in his last two runs pushing Warm Heart to half a length when second in the Pegasus and then taking a Grade Two at Fair Grounds despite an awful draw. Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz are as formidable a partnership as there is in Turf racing in the States and they have a cracking chance.

Fierceness is your likely post-time favourite after a stunning win in the Florida Derby. The Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion has talent but has been suspected of downing tools when facing adversity. Drawn in 17 and with other front-runners likely to contend, he is opposed for betting purposes. Sierra Leone has been very impressive in the last two runs but looks short in the market for a horse that will be ridden out the back for luck. I’ve landed on CATCHING FREEDOM, and while he’ll need luck in running too, he’s a far more attractive each-way price (where Paddy is paying 5 places online).  He will be ridden very similarly to Sierra Leone. He was one length behind that rival two starts ago and stepped up again on that effort when impressively taking the Louisiana Derby. He looks like a cracking each-way bet.

Trader Tips for Churchill Downs

17:36 – Mischief Magic
18:14 – Three Witches (each-way)
18:56 – Coppice
19:46 – Seize The Grey (each-way)
20:40 – Legend Of Time
21:31 – Hoist The Gold
22:27 – I’m Very Busy
23:57 – Catching Freedom (each-way)

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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