The wait is finally over. After two weeks of build-up and dozens of Super Bowl predictions, the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will face off tonight in Glendale, Arizona in Super Bowl LVII.
Not only does this eagerly anticipated game feature the two top seeds in the AFC and NFC, it also offers the biggest menu of Super Bowl odds EVER along with the most “gambling” friendly landscape in the history of the NFL’s championship game. I hope you like NFL promo codes, because here they come!
In the end, the great thing about Super Bowl betting is that after everyone has said their two cents and tossed their hat (and 15-leg Same Game Parlay) in the ring, Philadelphia and Kansas City will decide who is right and who is wrong.
Join me as I run down the spread and total for Eagles vs. Chiefs and give my best free NFL pick for Super Bowl LVII.
Eagles vs Chiefs best odds
Eagles vs Chiefs picks and predictions
Given the quality of these two clubs and the slim spread, there are enough cases for either side of that line. However, I do believe the market was a bit upside down on the Kansas City Chiefs in those first 48 hours of action.
Before the AFC and NFC Championship Games were played, sportsbook operators were dealing with “lookahead lines” for Super Bowl LVII. Those projections had the Chiefs as 1-point neutral site favorites over the Eagles. And once the matchup was cemented Sunday night after the championship games, a number of bookmakers opened the Chiefs as big as 1.5-point favorites.
As I looked at the line on Tuesday morning, the Philadelphia Eagles were as big as 2-point chalk for February 12.
There are valid injury concerns for the Kansas City Chiefs, with a trio of receivers leaving the AFC title game with injuries and defensive stalwarts Willie Gay and L’Jarius Sneed also going down.
Those ailments also fall on top of a bum ankle for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. That said, the bye week gives a two-week break in the action for those players to heal up at their own pace and play on Super Bowl Sunday.
What’s more baffling to me, though, is the public perception of these two teams after Championship Sunday.
Sure, the Eagles mopped the San Francisco 49ers 31-7 in the NFC title game. Still, San Francisco was playing with either fourth-stringer Josh Johnson under center (which was a disaster) or a noodle-armed Brock Purdy, who returned to action when Johnson left with a concussion despite a torn UCL in his throwing elbow suffered in the first quarter.
Philadelphia didn’t exactly go for the throat either, as the Niners’ defense kept things respectable until they couldn’t, playing 37:26 of action due to turnovers and San Francisco’s offense being unable to throw the ball — at all.
It was a win, but Philadelphia shouldn’t receive an upgrade for that performance, considering the circumstances. On the flip side, Kansas City shouldn’t be downgraded for a close game against the Bengals in the AFC Championship, either. In fact, it should be the opposite.
The Chiefs not only overcame those missing pieces to pull out the victory against Cincinnati and avenge a three-game losing skid to the Bengals but knocked off a team on a 10-game winning streak and one that was playing the best two-way football in the NFL over the past two months. And they did it with Mahomes visibly hampered by that ankle injury.
There will be no shortage of analysis for the Chiefs and Eagles in the ramp-up to Super Bowl LVII, with plenty of pros and cons for either side. However, when it comes to getting the best of the number, I strongly feel Kansas City +2 is a great spread bet right now.
Not only is the market trending back toward Kansas City (some books as low as KC +1), but we’re getting Mahomes & Co. as underdogs on the other side of the key number of one, which is why I’m taking the points instead of grabbing Kansas City on the moneyline outright.
If you can’t get the +2, the +1.5 is also good, as this could very much be a one-point game for either team.
My best bet: Chiefs +2 (-104 at WynnBET)
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Eagles vs Chiefs spread analysis
The opening Super Bowl LVII point spread ranged from Kansas City -1.5 to Philadelphia -1.5, with plenty of pick’em lines in between. However, shortly after those odds opened on Sunday evening, the market swung in favor of the Eagles.
Philadelphia drew the early action from Super Bowl bettors, and the market moved to as high as Eagles -2.5. That early opinion is significant as we’ve seen that initial adjustment move toward the team that eventually covers the Super Bowl spread in 11 of the past 15. Last year’s matchup between the Rams and Bengals did not follow that trend, as the line first moved toward the Rams, but the Bengals covered as underdogs.
As of Tuesday morning, the market is settling in at Philadelphia -2 with some shops hanging -1.5. Mainstream operators like DraftKings and PointsBet are reporting heavier ticket count and handle on Philadelphia in the first 48 hours of action, with Philly drawing as much as 76% of the early money.
The lookahead line for this particular Super Bowl matchup was Kansas City -1 at a number of books before Championship Sunday.
But with Kansas City playing in a close contest with Cincinnati in the AFC title game and suffering injuries to some key players on both sides of the ball — as well as Patrick Mahomes playing through a high ankle sprain — the market isn’t as high on the Chiefs out of the blocks.
Receivers Kadarius Toney, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Mecole Hardman all left Sunday’s AFC Championship with injuries, along with defensive standouts Gay and Sneed. There is a two-week window between those injuries and Super Sunday, so these ailments (as well as Mahomes’ tender ankle) have plenty of time to heal up.
Philadelphia ran through its two postseason opponents, most recently wrecking San Francisco 31-7 in the NFC Championship. That said, the 49ers were down to a fourth-string QB with starter Brock Purdy (the team’s third starting QB on the season) injured early and unable to throw the ball after his backup left the game due to a concussion.
The tight spread is reflective of the quality both teams bring to the table in Phoenix, as the Eagles and Chiefs rank out No. 3 and No. 4, respectively, in Football Outsiders Team DVOA metrics.
Kansas City finished the year as the No. 1 DVOA offense, with Philly close behind at No. 3. While the Eagles have the edge in overall defensive work (No. 6 DVOA), the Chiefs’ stop unit has peaked at the perfect time, ranking No. 7 in Defensive DVOA since Week 16.
The betting success for these two teams, in terms of ATS returns, has been different. Kansas City is 7-11-1 against the spread on the year, while Philadelphia owns a 10-9 ATS record this season, including 2-0 ATS so far in the postseason.
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Eagles vs Chiefs Over/Under analysis
The Over/Under total for Super Bowl LVII opened as high as 51 points on Sunday night, and early action came in on the Under, dragging this number as low as 48.5 points. However, the market consensus as of Tuesday morning is 49.5, with a few shops higher at 50 Over/Under.
According to mainstream operators, the Under has been the popular pick in terms of ticket count, with as much as 61% of bets on a lower-scoring finish. However, the splits on the total in terms of handle vary from operator to operator, with some higher on Over money and others taking in as much as 62% of money on the Under.
Both the Eagles and Chiefs have gone Under in each of their two postseason outings and have produced more Under results in recent contests, with Philadelphia on a four-game Under run and Kansas City going 1-4 O/U in its last five outings.
This total is on par with last year’s number (49.5 O/U) but on the lower end of the Over/Under when measuring closing totals over the past six Super Bowls. That may be surprising considering the quality of offensive firepower on both sides, but we have two solid stop units, perhaps overshadowed by the achievements of their offensive counterparts.
As mentioned, Philadelphia was among the defensive elite all season, ranking out in the Top-6 in DVOA as well as EPA allowed per play. The Eagles have an excellent defensive line that drums up pressure on the passer and generated a league-high 70 sacks on the season. The secondary protects against the deep ball with zone coverage and allowed an average of just 1.2 passing touchdowns per game.
As for the Chiefs, much like past seasons, this defense has found its form at the right time. Kansas City has improved greatly over the past month, headlined by an aggressive defensive line that also drums up pressure on rival QBs at the fifth-highest rate in the land. The Chiefs’ pass rush was on full display against a thin Bengals offensive line, registering five sacks in the AFC Championship.
Philadelphia owns a 10-9 O/U record on the season but, as mentioned, has trended toward the Under in recent showings. Kansas City is 8-11 O/U entering Super Bowl LVII but 6-3 O/U outside of Arrowhead Stadium.
Eagles vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Check out our recently updated Super Bowl 57 same-game parlay picks!
Eagles vs Chiefs betting trend to know
Kansas City is 18-2 straight up and 11-8-1 ATS versus NFC opponents since 2019, including 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Eagles vs. Chiefs.
Eagles vs Chiefs game info
|State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
|Sunday, February 12, 2023
|6:30 p.m. ET
|Chiefs -1, 50 O/U
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